Trying to calculate the odds on nuclear war, as if it was some kind of bet, is insanity.
Would you volunteer to play Russian roulette, for real?
This is no different.
It ends in annihilation, for you too. You are not just a spectator in this, you are playing.
The barrel is pointed at your head, and you are pulling the trigger, over, and over, and you don't seem to realise it.
This is Scott's point exactly. You demonstrate it, perfectly.