Thanks good story and analysis, as good as it can be, in context of Earth alone, Will.
But if you include also the sun, assigning value to the energy from there, statements like "Hydrogen created by electrolysis is expensive" cease to be true. It's expensive in terms of energy which is finite and only yielded by profit, but it's for free, if the energy that created it is for free per KWhr yielded.
And the energy from the sun is for free per KWhr of energy yielded.
Yes the kit to do it is expensive right now, but you know the way this works, adoption brings down cost of implementation.
This is doubly true in the case of hydrogen production from solar by electrolysis, because the product being created by free KWhrs is valuable in markets.
Revenue from sales of the product can easily be fed back into the initial installation, scaling it upwards, or even given for free to start new installations by other communities.
So in the end it's all for free, not expensive at all.
The key to getting this in, is maybe in aerospace seeing how to adopt it.
To them I would say, and will say, "get equipped yourself", and all else will follow.
Aerospace, afrer being equipped for its own use, companies like BAE, Rolls Royce, Boeing, Cobham Etc (Most of whom I've worked for), could then generate revenue to be given for free to the general population, to enable them also to produce hydrogen.
This is the only way we/they will get enough in production to replace fossil fuels.
The energy of the sun is distributed by nature.
The only way we can grab enough of it to feed the industry of aerospace, is for everyone to be grabbing it.
We will do that, as soon as it is incentivised, and that will be when the value of solar is finally fully realised, despite it being essentially for free.