Personally I think it will be much earlier than that. I don't see how we are going to avoid some planet crunching crises in the next year or two, which will force a do-or-die reaction.
I notice some folk still saying the environment is not a problem.
Easy to say if we don't live anywhere affected, but have they noticed the levels of human migration? More humans are migrating than ever before in history, and most of them are genuinely running scared. That won't get any less. We won't be able to stop people flooding into the places perceivd to be safer, so those places won't feel so safe any longer, given everyone arriving has come from somewhere much rougher, and had to fight tooth and nail every step of their journey. Some elites might flee to islands, but those places won't be immune either. All of it is going strange, and set to become much stranger. The UK South Coast town I live in used to be a relateively safe place, it was a desirable place in the UK, that I aspired to live in, having experienced grinding poverty in younger life, some of that in Glasgow slums in the seventies.
In the last year or two, the street outside where I live in Bournemouth town centre has become a war zone, much worse than anything I remember from Glasgow, or any other place I lived where there was poverty. Knife crime has rocketed, drug and other illicit dealers are everywhere. Kids don't feel safe enough to venture out at night, the ones who do are the crazies doing the bad stuff. London, and of course Glasgow, has to be worse now. A schoolgirl was stabbed to death in London yesterday, the incident going on National news, but this stuff is happening all the time, in every town, under the radar.
All of this is avoidable, as well as the inflation, and all the crime, by paying people not to do it, and all of that can be done by solar indexed stimulus.
Tesla, the namesake of the company you seem to admire so much knew all of this. He tried to change it, but failed, the capitalists stopped him. Now you have one even running a company in his name.
The physics wasn't pushing things so much then, but it is now, with every point percent of temperature rise, we will see exponentially increasing frequency of forest fires, floods, and all the other disasters.
At the root of it is this thing we call profit. Every time a profit is made, we push up the temperature just another few ppm, because the energy in the profit, had to come from Earth. It was always an energy con, but somehow we never questioned it. The energy in profit can never come from the sun, that is physically impossible. Only the planet can be ripped off, that is why the emissions have not gone down despite significant increase of solar capacity, we are not putting the energy to use, because we are not monetising it, and the only way to monetise it is to issue solar indexed stimulus.
This is the only way out of planetary destruction, I can't say that strongly enough.
We either do what nature demands, or we go extinct, much sooner than most folk realise, as long as they keep using the language of renewables, which does not even distinguish between energy that destroys, and energy that creates.
There certainly wll be no linear transition, that too is impossible, we either make the switch to solar in a massive leap, as would happen in response to solar indexed stimulus, or not at all.
