Frederick Bott
3 min readOct 22, 2024

--

Ironically, I actually agree with him that vision should be enough, there are vision technologies in mobile phones now that far surpass anything ever done by Lidar. Has been since around 2019, when Chinese mobile phones routinely had markerless human skeletal tracking capability, something that previously required a studio with multiple stationary cameras, and markers on all the joints of the subject human, to do. Absolutely no chance by Lidar, that we might say is a form of vision anyhow. Effectively mobile motion capture ("M-MOCAP", anybody?) capability requires accurate trajectory tracking of all the joints on a human skeleton, simultaneously, from a single moving viewpoint, to record and replay the action of a moving human, even multiple humans and animals, in motion, in 3D.

That capability would obviously be very useful, in trying to predict whether or not the trajectory of a human or animal is likely to come into the path of a vehicle equipped with the ability to see that, much like a human can. Notice humans use only vision to do the job of controlling the car.
That capability in phones seems to have been disabled now, at least it has been on my own Huawei phone that used to do it, and I was involved in that development, proposing to use it technically for professional dance capture in Cuba, working with Cuban dance companies (my Western bank soon put a stop to that). The Chinese maybe realised that what they innocently developed for kids to use to capture their pals and pets antics, dances etc, to be replicated by avatars in virtual games environments, the West might use militarily against them. If I was them, I'd be similarly concerned.
We also concluded on the ASTRAEA civilian UAV program that Lidar was not needed, even for air to air refuelling operations, again knowing the capabilities of vision extended to perform beyond Lidar, at less cost.
So personally I wouldn't fault Musk technically for choosing Vision alone.
To me it looks like maybe he was depending on Chinese vision technology, which effectively has been removed from the West, due to all the idiocy of politicians demonising, and threatening China and the East in general.
The truth is they have that technology and they might be wisely keeping it to themselves.
Further, it wouldn't be the first time we saw draconian standards being used ("Standards based development"), again by Western players, politically, to exclude or handicap competition, who might be behind the curve meeting standards. Europe appears expert at that. The introduction of the ridiculous European washing machine energy economy / efficiency ratings is a perfect example. The standard requires washing machines to have cold feeds only to be testable against the standard.
But the standard eliminates the use of hot water from physically much larger, more efficient domestic hot water storage systems. So the standard actually forcibly reduces overall energy efficiency in practice. The standard results in actually lowering efficiency. But it served to eliminate all manufacturers who insisted on maintaining the more expensive but more systemically efficient dual feed machine format.
And look, is your washing machine not cold-only feed now, forcing you to heat the hot water needed by the machine, in the machine itself, eliminating use of your maybe more efficient domestic hot water system? I am 100 percent certain, if you live in Europe, that will be the case :)
The truth is that in the West it's no longer technical merit that wins in markets now, it's whatever was used politically most successfully, and most profitably, that wins to market, and that is Enshittification, resulting in our technological development actually going backwards, compared with places that still put technical development above profit, like China. That is why they are the ones closest to flying to the moon again now whilst we are struggling to keep even budget planes in the air without the doors falling off, and leaving unscheduled astronauts stranded on ISS.
Where I would fault Musk's technical judgement is in things like the "spacecraft catcher" we saw recently demonstrated, and actually Starlink. Both of those things are crazy safety scenarios doomed to fail spectularly, just once, with truly catastrophic destruction, exposing Musk as a criminally wreckless showman, imho.
Time will tell with FSD whether vision is enough or not, but Musk should make sure he is using the full technical capability of the latest vision technology from China. That means he, and the US government that he obviously works with, should make sure they stay good friends with China, rather than making enemies of them :)

--

--

Frederick Bott
Frederick Bott

No responses yet