I like how you approached the analysis from the energy pov, but I notice missing any discussion of events in Ukraine leading up to the Russian "special operation", since the Maidan in 2014. Also missing is influence of Banderites and that ideology in Ukrainian government (It's big!), and no mention of the history of Ukraine historically hijacking fuel transit through pipelines from Russia so as to try to hold both Russia and Europe to ransom.
I'd provide links but using the stupid Medium Android app right now, impossible to do, unlike the old version of years ago that made it easy. It's all searchable though.
Hey-ho thanks for the analysis, even if dated. It looks like Russia is holding its own investigation now into the pipeline bombing. The outcome of that should be interesting. None of the European investigations appear to have come up with anything.