I agree with you it is a kind of chess game, and Ukraine is a sacrificial pawn. Thanks for your valuable sobering post, as always.
I don't think much of it was planned on our part though. Arrogant assumption we'd always be top dog economically has made us complacent.
Russia and China show far more signs of planning than us.
I think we've just reacted, very badly as always.
China has an ancient history and tradition of redirecting aggression back against aggressors, and Russia has a cultural tradition of chess.
Of course together they saw everything coming, it seems to me.
I think this time, our very stupid aggressive reaction is going to blow up in our face. In fact it is already.
The sad thing is Western liberals still don't understand the violence of financial instruments, because they've never been victims of it, or of physical violence either, for that matter.
If I was a betting person, my money would be on both China and Russia being far more aware of the connection between energy and economy, and the importance of aligning those.
They know far more about our energy resources than we know about theirs.
In fact we are still eagerly swtching off all sources of information from them that might educate us more about that.
We are like kids refusing to listen to adults, sticking our fingers in our ears singing lalala, and alternately having blustering, screaming tantrums, whilst waving loaded guns.
We will be forced to the negotiation table, kicking and screaming, sooner or later, one way or another, and a lot of folk are going to be made to admit some uncomfortable truths, I think.
It is a horrendous crime against humanity, and even the planet and all life, what is happening to the people of Ukraine, and it can't be undone, but this time, it isn't going to end by being lied about.